How Romania Is Battling Inflation in 2025: Strategies, Stakeholders & Outlook

In 2025, Romania remains challenged by inflation rates hovering around 4–5%, among the highest in the EU . However, authorities have launched a multipronged response: the central bank keeps interest rates high, fiscal measures aim to reduce deficits, and energy price caps offer relief. Here on Știrinoi.com, we analyze Romania’s anti-inflation strategies, their economic impact, and near-term outlook.

1. Tight Monetary Policy

1.1 Policy Interest Rate at 6.5%

BNR has held rates steady at 6.5% to rein in inflationary pressure, despite subdued economic growth (~1.2–1.3% in 2025) .

1.2 Inflation Forecast Increased to 4.6%

In April, BNR and ING revised inflation forecasts from 3.8% to 4.6–5.0%, with disinflation expected only after 2026 .

2. Fiscal Measures and Adjustments

2.1 Reducing Budget Deficit

Romania’s deficit hit 9.3% in 2024 and must drop below the EU limit of 3%. President Dan has demanded a credible deficit reduction plan by end-June.

2.2 Rationalizing Public Spending

The government favors spending cuts and better EU fund utilization over tax increases to avoid stoking inflation .

3. Consumer Protection: Energy Price Caps

Since late 2021, Romania enforces energy price caps for households and SMEs. These caps have been extended into 2025, helping consumers but prompting scrutiny from the EU for distorting market dynamics .

4. Interesting Facts

• Largest Deficit in the EU: Romania’s deficit reached 9.3% in 2024, with plans to reduce it to ~7% in 2025 and below 3% later .

• Stable Unemployment: Projected around 5% by 2026 .

• Public Sector Pay Increases: Wage and pension hikes contributed to inflation, prompting BNR’s cautious stance.

• Consumer Price Boycotts: In early 2025, Romanians protested rising retail prices through boycotts .

5. Expert Opinions

• BNR (Mugur Isărescu): Advocates cautious policy, postponing rate cuts until inflation and deficit are sustainably managed .

• Investors (Erste/ING): See high yields as attractive but warn that fiscal consolidation must be carried out swiftly .

• Economists: Support household protection, yet caution against prolonged market distortions by energy caps .

6. Conclusion

Romania’s anti-inflation strategy blends tight monetary policy, fiscal discipline, consumer protection, and structural reforms.