Inflation in Romania and Moldova – Signs of Cooling but Challenges Remain
- Jun 10
- 2 min read
In April 2025, Romania's annual inflation eased slightly to 4.86%, compared to the same month last year, according to INS figures bnm.md+6tradingeconomics.com+6stiri.md+6. However, the National Bank of Romania (BNR) has raised its inflation forecast for the end of 2025 to 4.6%, up from a previous 3.8% seenews.com. Persistent pressures from energy and food prices, along with core inflation acceleration, influenced this adjustment. Romania remains the EU leader in inflation, with 5.1% in March—well above the EU average of approximately 2.5% .
In contrast, the Republic of Moldova saw annual inflation drop to 7.8% in April 2025, the lowest since December 2024 adevarul.ro+5tradingeconomics.com+5fxempire.com+5. The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) maintained its key policy rate at 6.5% to help curb inflation bnm.md. Forecasts project average inflation of 7.3% in 2025, possibly reaching 8.5% in Q1, before declining toward 4.7% by 2026 . BNM expects inflation to return to its [5 ± 1.5%] target range by the end of the year moldovalive.md.
🔍 Surprising Facts
In Moldova, utility tariffs surged by over 50% in January 2025, significantly impacting consumer prices and contributing to a steep 9.1% annual inflation in January .
Romania became the EU champion of inflation in March, with 5.1%, compared to the EU average of 2.5%, followed by Hungary and Poland tradingeconomics.com+3adevarul.ro+3digi24.ro+3.
BNM's 6.5% interest rate is notably high compared to regional standards—signaling a strict anti-inflation policy .
🗣️ Editorial Opinion
Romania is navigating moderate inflation driven by global energy prices and domestic demand. BNR's cautious upward revisions show prudence, but fiscal policies and household consumption must stay in check.
Moldova, with relatively higher inflation, relies heavily on regulated-tariff adjustments. BNM’s tight monetary policy appears effective, as seen in declining inflation in April. Still, external energy price volatility and utility reforms will test this strategy.
🔚 Conclusion
Both Romania and Moldova show signs of inflation cooling in 2025, but under different economic frameworks:
Romania adopts a measured approach, keeping inflation around 4–5% and revising forecasts conservatively — balancing between stabilisation and maintaining consumer momentum.
Moldova pursues an assertive monetary and regulatory policy — tackling inflation head-on but affecting living costs more sharply.
Romanians already feel pressure from rising utilities and fuel costs, while Moldovans face steep increases in gas and electricity prices. Although the outlook offers hope, prudent fiscal and monetary management remains crucial.
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